Wednesday, July 8, 2009

BOEING's decison to purchase Vought facility - A breather to Dreamliner project


Boeing’s announcement to acquire the business and operations conducted by Vought Aircraft Industries at its South Carolina facility, where Vought builds a key structure for Boeing's 787 Dreamliner airplane is one of the key factors in re-assuring the 787 customers, who has been extremely worried on the Composite structure of 787 and its failures in recent past. The transaction is expected to close by the third quarter of 2009. Vought had already been struggling financially while the industry had been thriving and the economic downturn only served to stifle that rebound.

Accelerating productivity and efficiency within 787 supply chain -- Bolsters Boeing capability to develop and produce large composite structures -- Vought continues relationship with Boeing on range of programs. The Vought facility, located in North Charleston, performs fabrication and assembly of structures and systems installation of 787 aft fuselage sections, which are made primarily of composite materials. After the transaction, Vought will continue its work on many Boeing programs, including other components of the 787, as well as structures and components on the 737, 747, 767, 777, C-17 and V-22 through operations located elsewhere. The successful execution of Boeing Commercial Airplanes and Integrated Defense Systems backlog; the effects of customers cancelling, modifying and/or rescheduling contractual orders; the timing and effects of any decisions to increase or decrease the rate of commercial airplane production; the timing and effects of decisions to complete or launch a Commercial Airplanes program at Boeing, would have the booster with the Vought facility and the highly trained manpower at the facility.

Boeing's ability to successfully develop and timely produce the 787 and 747-8 aircraft; the ability of suppliers and, as applicable, subcontractors to successfully and timely perform their obligations; the effect of political and legal processes; changing defense priorities; and associated budget reductions by U.S. and international government customers affecting defense programs; relationship with union-represented workforce and the negotiation of collective bargaining agreements; the continuation of long-term trends in passenger and cargo traffic and revenue yields in the airline industry; the impact of volatile fuel prices and the airline industry's response; the effect of declines in aircraft valuation; the impact of airline bankruptcies. Through the agreement, Boeing will acquire the North Charleston facility, its assets and inventory and will assume operation of the site, and the parties will resolve all matters related to Vought's prior work on the 787 program. The cash consideration to be paid to Vought at closing is approximately $580 million. In addition, Boeing will release Vought from its obligations to repay amounts previously advanced by Boeing. Separately, Boeing entered into new agreements with Vought for work packages on the 737, 777 and 787.

Vought Aircraft Industries has found itself at a convergence zone of declining production output by airframers that is likely to cause significant financial pain to the company in 2010. Cuts in production on Boeing products like the 777, the Gulfstream G450 and G550 business jets, Airbus A330/A340 reduced output, slowing ramp ups on 767 and 747-8, an uncertain budget on the C-17, and Cessna's decision to suspend the Cessna Citation Columbus program are sources of worry for Vought.
Today if Boeing were to place a second 787 line in Charleston, the facility would be the manifestation of the once mused-about 'supersite' that former 787 program manager Mike Bair discussed in November 2007 as a potential solution for the company's supply chain woes. The supersite would manufacturer and integrate not only the individual aircraft structures, but deliver them to an on-site final assembly line that would see the aircraft completed and delivered to customers. A Charleston assembly line would immediately benefit from a significant reduction in required flights by the Dreamlifter to move both structure and tooling between partner sites and final assembly operations in Everett, WA. Currently, the center and aft fuselage sections are flown to Everett from Charleston. In addition, the Italian Alenia-built horizontal stabilizer is delivered by way of the South Carolina site where the Dreamlifter refuels before continuing on to Everett. However, Boeing has found significant challenges in Charleston as it has worked to begin production on 787 facing workmanship and experience issues at a greenfield site that has little historical aerospace manufacturing experience. By contrast, Boeing's Everett and Renton, Washington final assembly facilities have almost a combined century of aerospace manufacturing experience.

In the wake of the nearly two years of delayed incurred by the 787 program as a result of the challenging logistical requirements, Boeing began 2009 examining how to rebalance its supply chain to apply its lessons learnt and push ahead with further development and production without similar disruption. Boeing had already moved significant 787-9 engineering work back in house for the development of the first Dreamliner variant.

Friday, January 9, 2009

Indian Aviation Hopes- 2009: A new beginning



by KOUSTAV M.DHAR -Chief Operating Officer & Executive Director, MDLR Airlines

The year that went by: A chaotic year of shattered dreams for the global aviation industry, where players not only relinquished their dreams for fleet expansion, but also had to discontinue and declare bankruptcy or shut shop. This was the year where most players reached the bottom, it can't be lower. From here, anything new would only see growth and progress.

With the global economic conditiond cooling down, business and discretionary travel demand trends turned pointedly downwards in full season of third quarter of 2008. As a result, Indian- full service and low cost airline profit forecast for the year 2008 has progressively deteriorated with each succeeding quarter and losses have surmounted considerably.

The massive additional impact of fuel costs in the past four months is hampering the bottom line. If oil prices do come off significantly like the trend passed by Oil Ministry to the Indian aviation, with ATF prices hitting a 36 month, all time low on 15, December 2008, and airlines do make the service reductions they are talking of, the picture could look much more attractive. In the meantime, however, the rhetoric will continue to fly. Future credibility demands a level of restraint.

Key areas to be looked at to boost growth in 2009 :-

  • Improving consultation and co-operation between airport operators and state and local governments on airport and facilities usage planning.
  • Integrating investment on airports with improved road and rail links to and from airports.
    Ensuring non-aeronautical developments do not compromise aeronautical requirements of airports. Improving mechanisms for guiding development around airports to ensure aircraft noise issues are fully addressed in planning.
  • Passenger redressals and gaining back passenger confidence by relaxed cancellation charges and refund policies.
  • Developing mechanisms for effective ongoing dialogue between airport operators and airlines on maximum time-slot utilisation according to the airline need to capture the large mass of Indian air travellers.
  • Addressing future airport needs, recognising the importance of airports as an element of the national economic infrastructure and accommodating the safe and effective use by civil aviation of joint user or defence-owned airports. A suggested opening up of larger civil enclaves with defence parameters.
  • Allow more intra-Indian carrier interlining and allowing airlines to continue self handling within airport premises.

Ancillary airports need to be upgraded
Alternate airports with 20 minute fly zone to be spruced up to maintain, more hangar space for all airlines, proper passenger terminal to attract Cat II and Cat II enhanced operations. The Government should subsidise such positioning flight to create, develop and encourage more players to park outside metro airports and only fly to same as a hop over.

Trends in 2009
Industry has outgrown its nascent stage and no new addition or start-up of any airline in the last 20 months clearly marks that the optimum level has been derived between all the players. The new trends that would emerge would be:

  • Return of low fare flying and with that Tier II and III cities business travel would increase by at least 65 per cent in Q1 and Q2, 2009 .
  • The pure bred low cost model would now turn to low fare- low service model.
    B2B and B2C sales trend would now emerge as the handiest, next generation process for booking air travel in the country which could de-stabilise the travel fraternity and their long dominance on Indian traveller mind set.
  • Meta-search engines like www.ixigo.com would make knowing and comparing airline timing and fare now a desktop click job and become more popular.
  • Freebies like valet service, limousine service, goody bags, etc would be non-existent as the cost for such services would now be passed by airlines to passengers.
  • Demand will be much more globally-focused. By the end of the forecast period, Middle East will be responsible for less than one third of new airliner deliveries, while China will be approaching 18 per cent and India would reduce to approximately 3.8 per cent.
  • Demand for current-generation regional jets is now down to approximately 256 units through 2011 and even these will be larger 75 - 90 seat models replacing 50-seaters. There are no new-technology lesser than 70 seat jet airliners in the planning stage. Therefore, some projections made elsewhere for 2,000 new small jets are simply not attainable and would be completely relinquished.
  • In the US, over 800 regional jets will retire from fleets. The effects on air service levels and airline strategies will be dramatic. Asia, Middle East and Africa would turn out to be dumping ground for the same and with non-supply of pilot demand growing all time high it would be dramatic.
  • The consolidation model, which has become more of a PR- exercise or, maybe, a carefully plotted exercise by two big giants of Indian private aviation, would drastically change this year. Singapore maintained after consolidation three brands- Singapore Airlines (a full service wholesome brand), SilkJet (a regional low fare- medium cost - single aisle operations) and Tiger Airways (a true blooded LCC), a great business model. This has proved to be one of the most successful models. But in the Indian scenario, Jet Airways with the confused Jetlite brand or Kingfisher with diminishing Kingfisher Red brand has mixed up the business models, which definitely is not the consolidation business model. In that case, the most successful, yet less spoken about consolidated successful business model from the industry perception is of NACIL -Air India, which has integrated the branding and procedural operation with real finesse, though stages for initial hiccups are far from over.